AI and Decision-Making
The Humphrey Trap — Modelling Fluency Against Accuracy in AI Output
Turn up how articulate the advice is, turn down how carefully it is checked, and watch the gap between confidence and correctness open up.
Open simulationOpen Systems and the Limits of Prediction — An Interactive Model
A closed model versus a match that reacts to being predicted. More data narrows the first and cannot fix the second.
Open simulationSystems Thinking and Decision-Making
Analysis Paralysis — Clocks, Clouds and the Cost of Waiting for Certainty
Commission more analysis, hold another meeting, run a thousand simulations. Then watch the clock, because not deciding is also a decision.
Open simulationStakeholder Objectives — Misalignment, Side Quests and Invalid Goals
Get Bob through the day without learning the score. Three different failure modes are waiting, and stakeholder management advice usually only recognises one.
Open simulationCompound Probability — Why Programme Plans Fail Like Accumulators
Set ten dependencies at 90% each and watch the overall chance of success collapse. Then couple the failures together and watch it get worse.
Open simulationWork as Imagined vs Work as Done — An Operational Diagnostic
Four questions about how your organisation really runs, and an honest answer about which Slade Prison archetype is in charge.
Open simulationDepartmental Optimisation — When Every Department Is Right and the Business Loses
Give Sales, Warehouse, Transport and Planning what each of them reasonably wants, then look at whole-system performance.
Open simulationSystems Thinking and Product Management
Theory of Constraints — A System Dynamics Model
An interactive stock-and-flow model showing how queues accumulate, constraints dominate, and local optimisation can make the wider system worse.
Open simulationTransport Optimisation
Weighted Objective Functions — An Interactive Transport Planning Model
Change what the planner is told to value, and watch the “best” route plan change with it. An objective function is a policy decision disguised as arithmetic.
Open simulationClarke-Wright Savings — An Interactive Vehicle Routing Simulator
Step through a 1964 routing heuristic one merge at a time and watch out-and-back trips collapse into sensible shared runs across West Yorkshire.
Open simulationOrder Clustering — Comparing K-Means, DBSCAN and Graph Partitioning
Four ways of deciding which orders belong together, on the same set of orders. The grouping you choose constrains every route that follows.
Open simulationTwo-Opt and Three-Opt — An Interactive Route Improvement Simulator
Untangle a crossing route one swap at a time, then watch the algorithm stall on a hill it cannot see past.
Open simulationSimulated Annealing — An Interactive Route Optimisation Simulator
Let the optimiser accept a worse route on purpose, control how long it is allowed to do that, and see whether the gamble pays off.
Open simulationTabu Search — An Interactive Route Optimisation Simulator
Give the optimiser a memory instead of a coin. Watch a greedy search cycle forever, then watch a short forbidden-move list break the loop.
Open simulationGenetic Algorithms for Routing — An Interactive Evolution Simulator
Stop improving one plan and start breeding a population of them. Includes the permutation trap that breaks naive crossover.
Open simulationAnt Colony Optimisation — An Interactive Routing Simulator
Nobody plans the route. Dozens of simple ants each try one, the good attempts leave a stronger trail, and a dominant route emerges from accumulated evidence rather than from a planner.
Open simulationLarge Neighbourhood Search — An Interactive Routing Simulator
Destroy part of a respectable route plan, repair it, and see whether a better structure emerges.
Open simulationLogistics
Empty Miles — An Interactive Causal Loop Diagram
A Senge-style causal loop diagram with adjustable force strength, showing how a freight system shifts between avoidable waste and structural constraint.
Open simulation